Earned, not declared
Gate board
Simulation and Autonomy do not open until these conditions clear. This sheet says where each one stands today.
| # | Condition | Status | Check |
|---|---|---|---|
| SimulationBuilding0/4 clearedHypotheses fail here before they fail in deployment. | |||
| 01 | Environment scaffold Synthetic markets cover structure, timing, and regime — the axes Hermes reads live — not just price replay. Not standing yet. | Open | — |
| 02 | Decision parity Simulation runs the same gated decision engine as live. No shortcuts. Simulation treasury is live on Solace rails. Engine parity still incomplete. | Partial | Hermes → |
| 03 | Pre-deploy harness Nothing deploys without passing automated simulation checks first. Not on the deploy path yet. | Open | — |
| 04 | Load-bearing proof One published case where simulation caught something live testing would have missed. None published. Autonomy waits on this. | Open | — |
| AutonomyGated0/4 clearedSame discipline, wider domains. Every row below has to clear first. | |||
| 01 | Regime cycles One full bull-and-bear cycle in the markets Hermes trades. Years, not months. Neither of two complete. | Open | Ledger → |
| 02 | Capital threshold Enough verified capital under management, held through a full drawdown, before scale. The number gets published when it is set. Founder capital only. Threshold not published yet. | Partial | Ledger → |
| 03 | Oracle calibration proven Brier score on a resolved sample large enough to mean something — published in full. Keeping score. Sample still too small to claim. | Partial | Oracle → |
| 04 | Simulation load-bearing Simulation catches failures before deployment — with at least one documented case on the record. Waiting on Simulation #04. | Open | Sim #04 → |
We update a row when something actually changes. The Check column points to where you can verify it. Full definitions are in brief §07.
History
Board revisions
| Version | Date | Note |
|---|---|---|
| v0.2 | July 13, 2026 | Ladder and single sheet layout. |
| v0.1 | July 13, 2026 | First public board. |
Gate board
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